Several of the grounds Marvel insisted on a cinematic run for Black Widow (instead of releasing it on VOD last year) is because tentpole productions like MCU blockbusters rely heavily on box office sales to recover their expenses. Even Marvel movies, which are more reasonably financed than Avengers: Endgame, are costly endeavours, and Black Widow is no exception. It’s in a situation where a strong theatrical run is required to turn a profit.
The rumoured production budget for is already in excess of $200 million, which is comparable to the costs for MCU Phase 3 films Black Panther and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. It eventually cost more than that to produce than the bulk of Phase 3’s non-Avengers flicks. Captain America: Civil War ($230 million) is the lone exception, with an Avengers-style ensemble cast. The $200 million budget for Black Widow does not include marketing expenses.
To stay out, Black Widow will need to generate around $400 million globally, according to the usual rule of thumb (production budget times 2 Equals break-even threshold). Nevertheless, in this situation, that’s more than likely.
Prior to the epidemic, Black Widow had a well-publicized marketing effort, replete with a high-profile Super Bowl ad. It’s unclear how much money Disney spent on marketing, however, the repeated delays are likely to have increased the expenses, since they were forced to put out various campaigns. Although there was no new Black Widow Super Bowl commercial in the year and, Disney still needed to do their share to increase awareness and build excitement for the film, especially after it was repeatedly postponed. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Black Widow’s break-even figure is nearer to $500 million.
Even if the movie office has not yet entirely recovered from the epidemic, Black Widow does have a strong chance of exceeding that amount. F9 has a worldwide gross of $500.5 million, and with the film expected to gross much more, it should easily surpass $500 million. This will be fascinating to see how successful it is at the box office towards the conclusion of its own run. Several viewers are still concerned about the epidemic, not everybody feels secure returning to the theatre.
This will have an influence on the commercial prospects of Black Widow. Disney+, on the other hand, may be able to help make up the gap.